Trump and Harris’ odds of winning on Polymarket level off ahead of the vote

What’s new? The odds of victory for the two major US presidential candidates on Polymarket, the largest decentralized crypto prediction market, continue to level off. On October 31, Donald Trump overtook Kamala Harris with 65% against 35%, at the moment their chances are estimated by users at 58% and 42% respectively. The voting itself will take place on November 5.

Material by CoinDesk

What else is known? The Polymarket platform runs on the Layer 2 (L2) Polygon network based on the Ethereum blockchain, it allows users to buy shares in the outcome of political and sporting events and receive one USDC stablecoin per share if the prediction comes true. If a share in favor of an event costs $0,60, the platform interprets this as a 60% chance that the event will happen.

Thus, one vote in favor of a Harris victory has increased in value from $0,35 to $0,42 since the end of last month. Conversely, one share in favor of Trump has fallen in price from $0,65 to $0,58.

The number of bets above $10 000 rose over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of both pro-Trump and pro-Harris stocks are selling off amid strong demand, likely capitalizing on the rise in those asset prices over the past few months.

An increase in incumbent Vice President and Democratic Party member Kamala Harris’ chances of winning may be due to traders hedging their bets, according to analysts at CoinDesk. A study of trades over $10 000 shows both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a loss for the 45th president and Republican Donald Trump.

Some analysts believe the rise in Harris odds reflects hedging positions among traders who are betting on a Trump victory.

A well-known trader of prediction markets under the nickname Domer believes that the real chances of Harris winning are 55-60% if we take into account various polls and trends in voter behavior. In turn, polling aggregator Real Clear Polling gives Trump a microscopic advantage: 48,5% vs. 48,4%.

source: X.com

In addition, as in the last 2020 election, reports of irregularities in favor of Democrats have begun to surface online. If these rumors are true, the rigging also increases Harris' chances of winning.

Earlier, analysts reported that the share of fictitious trading on Polymarket in connection with the presidential election amounted to 30%.