​Standard Chartered analyst calls a possible default in the US a trigger for the growth of BTC by $20 000

The material is not an investment recommendation and is published for information purposes only.

What’s new? Bitcoin could rise by $20 000 at once if the United States defaults on its debts, according to Geoff Kendrick, Head of FX Research at the British bank Standard Chartered. In an interview with Business Insider, he said that it could happen in July 2023 if Congress does not agree to raise the national debt limit to a new level.

Interview on the Business Insider website

What other statements have been made? Kendrick called a US default a “low-probability, high-impact event.” Bitcoin could be the asset that would benefit from default because it is decentralized and often seen as a safe haven in times of market turmoil.

Kendrick believes that bitcoin will not grow linearly. It will most likely drop in value by $5000 in the first days or week after a default, and then rise sharply by $25 000. That said, not all cryptocurrencies will follow bitcoin’s lead. Ethereum, which, according to the analyst, is traded like a stock, is likely to fall in the event of a default. Kendrick believes the optimal trading strategy is to open a long position on bitcoin and a short position on Ethereum.

Previously, Kendrick stated that the first cryptocurrency could rise to $100 000 by the end of 2024. He cited the banking crisis, halving, and monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) as the main reasons.

Possible US default. If Congress does not raise the federal debt ceiling from the current $31,4 trillion, a default could come this summer. According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, this event would be a disaster for the economy and would cause massive unemployment, payment disruptions, and a permanent rise in interest rates.

Investor Chamath Palihapitiya says cryptocurrencies are dead in the United States

He blamed the excessive pressure on the industry from regulators

Read further

BTC expert predictions. Earlier, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted BTC to rise to $65 600 after halving, which is expected in April 2024. Macro investor Dan Tapiero expects the capitalization of the crypto market to grow by 8 times and the value of bitcoin to $300 000-$500 000. And in late 2022, an anonymous PlanB analyst said he expects bitcoin to grow from $100 000 to $1 million.

As of May 1, 07:40 UTC, BTC is trading at $28 671 on Binance, down by 2,19% in 24 hours. The asset has a 46,9% market share and a capitalization of $555,3 billion.