Bernstein: Trump’s election victory will cause bitcoin to rise to $90 000

The material is not an investment recommendation and is published for informational purposes only.

What’s new? According to analysts of the brokerage company Bernstein, the bitcoin rate can grow by 30-46% from the current marks in the event of a victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election in November. In general, experts believe that in the long term, the bitcoin rate will grow regardless of the outcome of the election due to the reduction of the Fed rate, the continuing US budget deficit, and the unprecedented level of debt. However, the short-term reaction to this event could be very significant.

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What else is known? The Bernstein report says that Trump’s victory will be a positive factor for bitcoin and crypto markets in general, and the first cryptocurrency could reach $80 000-90 000, updating the current all-time high set in March 2024 at around $74 000.

In turn, a victory for current Vice President Kamala Harris could lead to a bitcoin correction that would see it drop to $40 000 shortly after the vote. The last time such low levels were not seen until January 2024.

Analysts also believe that as the election approaches, bitcoin will become increasingly sensitive to the probability of victory of one of the two leading candidates. Thus, if the probability of Trump’s victory is significantly higher, positive dynamics will be observed. Conversely, if the probabilities remain at approximately the same level, not allowing to predict the outcome, the rate will consolidate in a narrow range and will not make a significant growth.

In the current election campaign, Trump is positioning himself as a supporter of cryptocurrencies. He accepts them as donations, calls for the creation of a national bitcoin reserve, and the country’s turning into a crypto hub. Trump promises to support the mining industry and appoint a cryptocurrency-friendly chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as opposed to the current head Gary Gensler. The agency has filed numerous lawsuits against crypto firms without developing clear rules for their activities.

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Conversely, Harris did not mention cryptocurrency in any of her speeches until recently. It was not until September that she said she would support the crypto industry because the country should lead the way in blockchain technology. The vice president also added that digital assets are part of her vision of an “opportunity economy.”

As for the broader crypto market, Bernstein believes that major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will continue to trade in a narrow range until the election anyway.

They will show a distinct rise/fall only after the event when there will be more clarity about the new SEC chairman and presidential administration officials.

Analysts note that the most relevant platform for predicting the outcome of the election is the decentralized crypto market, Polymarket: $1,6 billion is bet on the outcome of the event there.

Some argue that Polymarket cannot objectively reflect the opinions of Americans because users of the blockchain platform tend to support the industry-positive Trump. Bernstein, however, believes this view is flawed because users are betting real money and tend to rate the likelihood of victory rather than expressing sympathy for a candidate.

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On Polymarket at the time of writing, the probability of Trump winning is rated at 53%, with Harris’ odds at 46%. In swing state markets such as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump’s advantage is over 20%. When it comes to opinion polls, nationally, Harris has a 3% advantage.

Earlier, Standard Chartered said that Trump’s victory would lead to a five-fold increase in the Solana exchange rate, as SOL-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are more likely to be approved under his administration. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will rise to $200 000 by the end of 2025 regardless of the election results, while Ethereum will rise to $7000 if Harris wins, the bank’s analysts believe.