Rising US Treasury bond yields are negatively affecting risk assets

CoinDesk allowed the possibility of BTC to fall amid the growth of the MOVE index

08.01.2025 - 11:55

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2 min

What’s new? Analysts at CoinDesk paid attention to the change in the MOVE index, which may indicate a soon fall in the bitcoin rate. MOVE, or the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index measures the expected 30-day volatility in the US Treasury bond market, which is the second-largest financial market in the world after the currency market.

CoinDesk’s material

What else is known? Volatility in the fixed-income bond market, especially Treasuries, often leads to tighter financial conditions, the publication writes.

Unfortunately for crypto bulls, the MOVE index is on the rise after hitting a bottom in mid-December at 82. On Tuesday, January 7, the index rose to 102,78 following the release of US industrial production and inflation data, which drove Treasury bond yields higher.

Specifically, the 30-year bond yield rose to 4,92%, the highest level since November 23, while the 10-year bond yield jumped to 4,68%, a record since May.

The MOVE index collapsed after Donald Trump’s victory in the US election on November 5, which helped ease financial conditions for risk assets and led to their impressive year-end gains. However, both BTC and the S&P 500 index ran into trouble when the MOVE index began to turn around in mid-December.

Analysts note that bitcoin and the S&P 500 are forming a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern on their charts:

“Currently, with the MOVE index trending upwards, the likelihood of bitcoin and the S&P 500 completing their respective head-and-shoulders bearish reversal patterns appears high,” CoinDesk concluded.

BTC lost 1,1% overnight and 5,05% for the month, dropping to $95 895. The S&P 500 (ticker SPX) lost 1,11% for the day and 2,83% for the month, reaching 5909.

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