Crypto investor Bob Loukas predicts “true bear phase” in 2026

What’s new? Crypto trader and investor Bob Loukas said that the digital asset market could plunge into a “true bear phase” in 2026. According to the investor, the impetus for trend formation in the market comes from halvings. Loukas believes bitcoin will update its all-time high (ATH) before transitioning to a possible crypto winter.

"In theory", the coming (2023-26) #bitcoin 4-yr Cycle is the final 4 year cycle of a larger 16 yr Cycle.That 4th of 4 Cycles 'should' form Left Translated, to provide for a declining (true bear) phase of the 16 yr cycle.Thread - 1/n— Bob Loukas (@BobLoukas) August 1, 2022

Halving is bitcoin’s code embedded cut in half of the reward to miners for a mined block on the blockchain. Initially, miners received 50 BTC, this was reduced to 25 coins on November 28, 2012, to 12,5 coins on July 9, 2016, and to 6,25 coins on May 11, 2020. The next reward reduction to 3,125 BTC is expected in 2024 on block number 840 000.

What else does Loukas say? According to him, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four microcycles of 4 years each. The crypto trader's theory is based on an analysis of the markets and takes into account the behavior of its participants.

He noted that cycles of BTC movement should be counted from one local minimum to another. On the presented chart, arrows mark the expected end of each cycle. According to Loukas, the fourth cycle in the global 16-year cycle is characterized by a prolonged correction. On that basis, it could peak in 2023 and then, according to the trader, BTC could plunge into a period of prolonged decline. He added:

“In theory, the bitcoin lows in 2026 would actually form below where bitcoin drops in 2022. Yep, hard to believe, right!”

As of August 2 at 13:45 UTC, bitcoin is trading at $22 786, having lost 1,42% in 24 hours, according to Binance.

Earlier, analysts at Glassnode recorded a sign of bitcoin's bottom forming. They noted that the market value of BTC has been below its realized value for more than a month after a wave of capitulations in May and June.