CryptoQuant analyst predicts bitcoin exchange rate growth towards the end of the year

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What’s new? The head of research of the analytical blockchain platform CryptoQuant Julio Moreno suggested that the bitcoin rate will begin to grow in Q4 of this year. The prediction is based on a comparison of the asset's current price chart with the market situation in previous halving years.

Source: X.com

What else is known? Halving in the bitcoin network is a programmed event that occurs every four years since the blockchain's launch and halves the reward to miners for mining blocks. Specifically, Moreno compared price movements in 2016, 2020, and the current year. There was also a halving in April 2024, which resulted in the award being cut to 3,125 BTC.

According to the analyst, the current market situation is generally similar to what was observed in 2016 and 2020, and since the asset's exchange rate then showed a noticeable increase in Q4, he supposed that the same could happen now.

The CryptoQuant index, which tracks the first cryptocurrency's returns during the halving years, was used for the analysis. Only 2012, when the first halving occurred, stands out — then the most notable price spike occurred in Q3, and by the end of the year, the value of the asset slightly decreased in relation to this peak.

Before that, crypto investor Moataz Elsayed, known under the nickname Eljaboom, also analyzed the price movement of bitcoin in previous halving years.

Source: X.com

He noted that in 2016, the exchange rate first fell 40% but then rose 2300%, and in 2020, a 30% drop was followed by a 560% rebound. Finally, he added that 2024 has already seen a 30% drop and then a consolidation in the price range between the historical peak and local lows. In his opinion, this signals an impending breakout in Q4.

And analyst and investor Peter Brandt noted in early August that the current BTC decline is similar to the price movement of the 2015-2017 bull cycle.

Source: X.com

Also, CryptoQuant verified author Axel Adler attributed the recent BTC rate decline to the actions of bearish traders. According to him, they sell every time there is news about the US government moving a large volume of BTC to exchanges.