Sideways, market recession and collapse to $8000. Top 5 negative predictions for Bitcoin

On May 17, the crypto market's Fear and Greed Index fell to its lowest point since March 2020, at 8/100. The digital asset market plunged into extreme fear after the crash of the TerraUSD stablecoin (UST) and its collateral token LUNA, whose value collapsed by more than 99%. Following those events, bitcoin's price fell to $26 700 for the first time since late 2020. GetBlock Magazine's editorial staff collected the most negative predictions for developments in the crypto market.

Decline to $23 000

On May 6, Tone Vays, a leading trader and crypto analyst, said that bitcoin's price will continue to decline over the next few months and could reach the $23 000 mark. Referring to the weekly chart, Vays says bitcoin looks “absolutely terrible.” The trader stresses that he is waiting for the right time to buy the digital asset. According to Vays, BTC could take months before it can hit the bottom of a bear market.

“We are in the process of forming a brand new weekly closing low, which is problematic. Potentially, this is going to be the second-lowest closing low in about a year, in over a year, and that’s not a good sign,” Vays explained.

Bitcoin's fall to $22 000

Crypto analyst Kevin Svenson notes that bitcoin is highly correlated with the stock market in 2022. According to him, if the S&P 500 index begins to decline significantly, the first cryptocurrency could fall to $22 000.

The S&P 500 is an index that shows the current state of the US stock market. The S&P 500 basket includes 505 stocks of 500 public companies, traded on US stock exchanges, which have the largest capitalization.

At the same time, Svenson says bitcoin has begun to show signs signaling the end of a bear market. He suggests that the rise in weekly BTC sales on the Coinbase exchange could mean a trend reversal for the first cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, similar things happened in the digital currency market both at the peak of the bull period in 2017 and in 2018, when the price of bitcoin reached a minimum of $3000.

The collapse of the BTC rate to $8 000

According to the prediction of Peter Schiff, head of the brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital Inc., the price of bitcoin may fall below $10 000 if the rate of the first cryptocurrency continues to decline past the $30 000 mark.

The US stockbroker conducted a poll on his Twitter to determine what the owners of the asset would do. According to the poll, 10,4% of users intend to sell bitcoins, while 54,5% are willing to keep the cryptocurrency. 19,6% of participants are confident that the price of the asset will not fall below $30 000. 15,5% of respondents plan to sell bitcoins in order to buy them back later at a better price. A total of 37 132 users took part in the survey.

Peter Schiff leaves out the option of buying more bitcoins in the current market situation. He considers it a bad decision. At the same time, the investor is sure that many holders will do so until they run out of money. Schiff himself believes the best tactic is to sell assets in order to buy them back after they fall in value. The stockbroker urged asset owners not to panic and not to make hasty decisions.

On May 16, Schiff updated his bitcoin rate prediction by analyzing its chart. He noted that the support line for BTC was broken, so now its rate is heading towards $8000. The analyst noticed a “double top” as well as a “head and shoulders” on the chart. According to Schiff, this is a “sinister combination.”

“Sideways movement”

In early May, YouTube analyst Benjamin Cowen predicted a “sideways” movement in the price of bitcoin in the coming months. This means that the first cryptocurrency will trade without a clear direction.

Cowen believes that the digital currency will experience "pretty turbulent months" as the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) has intensified efforts to fight inflation and raised interest rates. The analyst notes that bitcoin needs to rise above two key resistance levels, which are $41 400 and $42 500, to move out of its current trading range.

According to Cowen, the digital asset has been in the zone where it is currently fluctuating longer than during the downtrend from its all-time high in November 2021 ($69 000) to the low reached in January of this year ($32 917).

“Massive liquidation and recession”

Raoul Pal, a former employee at investment bank Goldman Sachs, believes that May will be tough for the digital asset market. In his opinion, cryptocurrencies will face a “nasty recession” and “liquidation write large.”

Pal, like Benjamin Cowen, is confident that the drop in demand in the global market is due to a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. The analyst called cryptocurrencies a long-term investment, despite the fact that the cryptocurrency market is “in full panic mode.” Pal himself sees the coming recession as a “huge opportunity.”