​Can bitcoin rise to $100 000? Kommersant analysts’ opinion

The material is not an investment recommendation and is published for information purposes only.

What’s new? According to analysts, bitcoin will be able to exceed the mark of $100 000, but this should not be expected before 2024-2025, Kommersant reports. Cryptorg trading platform CEO Andrey Podolyan connects the drop in quotations on the crypto market with the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, owned by Sam Bankman-Fried. He explained that FTX and its affiliate trading company Alameda Research invested in many crypto projects and their loss of solvency caused a chain reaction that affected the entire market.

Kommersant’s material

What else does the publication report? Alexander Peresichan, founder of Satoshi Spirit, a platform for the promotion of blockchain projects, noted that FTX and Alameda have also supported companies affected by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. One of the last major deals was the buyout of bankrupt crypto broker Voyager Digital for $1,42 billion. That said, according to Peresichan, there were already questions in the crypto community over the summer about how the Bankman-Fried companies were selecting projects to invest in, and whether they would be able to meet their commitments. He added:

“Unfortunately, it turned out that neither it [Alameda] nor FTX had any funds, in fact, except customer money. Their companies were transferring them to each other, mixing them up with FTT coins and re-depositing them to get some more liquid coins, which they invested in other projects.”

On November 11, it became known that Alameda had lost about $8 billion in deposits of FTX’s customers. According to the bankruptcy filing, its assets and liabilities are estimated between $10 billion and $50 billion.

Andrey Podolyan noted that the crypto market diverged from the US stock market for the first time in a long time. “If not for the events with FTX, last week could have been very positive for the bulls,” the expert believes. In his opinion, in the near future growth in quotations should not be expected. He said that FTX and Alameda undermined the confidence of retail and institutional investors in the industry, which will be followed by a tightening of regulation in the leading capital markets, namely in the US, Europe, and Asia.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao holds the same view. He said that FTX’s collapse undermined trust in the entire industry and attracted increased attention from regulators, which will further complicate the work of crypto companies.

In turn, Berezka DAO and Weezi co-founder Roman Kaufman noted that the biggest impact on the bitcoin price had a cascading liquidation of debts on unsecured assets from FTX. He named Wintermute and Galois Capital as the key funds that suffered losses. The expert also noted Amber Group, which lost 10% of its trading capital, and Multicoin Capital, which lost 9,7% of assets under management.

Peresichan predicted that bitcoin could fall as low as $15 000. He noted that it has not happened yet because “the market does not yet see what bankruptcies will follow the collapse of Alameda.” The expert also assumes the decrease in the rate of BTC to $12 000-$13 000 specifying that a short-term growth to $20 000 is possible. The prediction is based on the assumption that users who were waiting for the bottom to hit the asset will immediately start buying back BTC when it drops to $15 000 or lower.

According to Peresichan, the next bullish period “should definitely not be expected before the end of 2023.” In anticipation of bitcoin halving, miners will begin to accumulate mined coins, the market will form a deficit and prices will go up, the expert explained.

Halving is bitcoin’s code embedded cut in half of the reward to miners for a mined block on the blockchain. Initially, miners received 50 BTC, this was reduced to 25 BTC on November 28, 2012, to 12,5 BTC on July 9, 2016, and to 6,25 BTC on May 11, 2020. The next reward reduction to 3,125 BTC is expected ~ in May 2024.

Peresichan believes that the growth of the crypto market will be in the period of 12-18 months after halving when bitcoin will be able to update its all-time high and overcome the $100 000 mark. The expert stressed that this is unlikely to happen before 2024-2025, and probably never.

As of November 14, 10:40 UTC, BTC is trading at $16 795, having gained 1,22% per day, according to Binance.

On November 11, analysts at Santiment reported that large bitcoin holders with wallets containing between 1000 and 10 000 BTC sold or redistributed about 140 000 coins over the past two weeks. The total amount of transactions amounted to about $2,25 billion.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that the collapse of the FTX exchange could push bitcoin to fall to $13 000. And research firm Fundstrat suggested that high market volatility would bring the asset’s price below $10 000.

GetBlock Magazine found out from experts when BTC will be able to update its all-time high. Read their opinions at the link.